Monday, December 29, 2008

Belajar Forex: trend sebagai penentu keuntungan.

 

DALAM forex, trend itu amat penting untuk urusniaga yang menguntungkan. Tiga trend utama yang harus dikenalpasti termasuklah:

 

  1. Trend menaik.

 

  1. Trend menurun.

 

  1. Trend statik.

 

Semasa pasaran berada dalam trend menaik, para peniaga akan mencari masa terbaik untuk membuat belian dan menjual pada harga yang menguntungkan.

 

Dalam trend menurun, para peniaga akan mencari harga sesuai untuk menjual dan menutup urusniaga ketika yang sesuai dan keuntungan diperolehi.

 

Dalam hal inilah ada yang mengatakan urusniaga bersifat gergaji dua mata. Ditolak ia memakan kayu dan ditarik kayu tetap terpotong. Apa tidaknya, forex memberi ruang kepada peniaga untuk jual dan beli sama ada pasaran naik atau turun.

 

Dalam kebanyakan pasaran, jika harganya menurun, rata-rata peniaga akan mengalami kerugian. Hal ini tidak akan berlaku dalam forex. Pasaran yang menurun akan memberi peluang kepada peniaga untuk membuat transaksi jualan dan mengaut untung bila harga mencecah ke tahap terendah.

 

Selain trend menaik dan menurun, terdapat juga trend yang ketiga iaitu trend statik. Dalam trend ini pasaran akan berada pada harga yang tidak sesuai untuk berurusniaga.

 

Justeru, sebelum seseorang peniaga itu memasuki pasaran, beliau wajip mengenalpasti trend yang didepaninya.

 

Suatu hal yang perlu juga diketahui ialah jenis tempoh masa dan waktu urusniaga dalam forex. Terdapat pelbagai tempoh masa dan katagori waktu. Jenis tempoh masa dalam forex termasuklah tempoh mengikut minit, 5 minit, 15 minit, 30 minit, sejam, 4 jam, sehari, seminggu dan bulanan. Berdasarkan tempoh-tempoh masa ini trend akan dapat dikenalpasti dan carta akan dibentuk.

 

Sebagai contoh, bagi menentukan perjalanan pasaran secara harian, pergerakan setiap jam atau 4 jam akan diperhati.

 

Bagi pelabur yang bukan berurusniaga berasaskan harga penutup harian "end of day trading", pergerakan harga jangka pendek akan diperhatikan. Pelabur yang juga dikenali sebagai peniaga "intra day", pergerakan harga jangka pendek seperti 5 minit dan sejam akan membantunya mengenalpasti trend.

 

Kebanyakan broker forex menyediakan platform berasaskan pusingan waktu sedunia. Sebagai contoh, nilaian akan bermula pada jam 6:am waktu Malaysia. Pada ketika ini pasaran Australia akan mula dibuka. Putaran jam urusniaga akan terus berputar hinggalah waktu penutup pasaran New York iaitu sekitar jam 5:am waktu Malaysia.

 

Jika ditanya bilakah waktu yang paling menguntungkan, jawapan saya ianya bergantung pada bila kita benar-benar bersedia memasuki urusniaga.

 

Pada masa akan datang, saya akan berkongsi bagaimana trend dikenalpasti khususnya bagi mereka yang cacat penglihatan kerana kita akan menghadapi masalah mengikuti skrin pasaran yang bersifat grafik. – 1 Muharam 1430H.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Fundamental, technical analysis 3*: The dollar strengthened most.

By Jamie McGee and Michael J. Moore

 

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar strengthened the most against the euro in almost two months as traders said the decline was too fast to be sustained after the Federal Reserve lowered the target lending rate to near zero this week.

 

The euro also weakened after the European Commission said the region may suffer a "substantial" effect from the financial crisis next year. The yen traded near a 13-year high against the dollar even after the Bank of Japan lowered its benchmark interest rate to 0.1 percent.

 

"This was the most concentrated, rapid rally in the euro since its creation," said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. "The market got a little ahead of itself in the short run. We are getting a healthy correction now."

 

The dollar climbed 2.5 percent to $1.3898 versus the euro at 3:53 p.m. in New York, from $1.4240 yesterday, when it slumped to a 12-week low of $1.4719. It gained as much as 3 percent, the biggest intraday increase since Oct. 24. The euro fell 2.8 percent to 123.88 yen from 127.44. The dollar traded at 89.12 yen, compared with 89.43. It dropped to 87.14 yen two days ago, the lowest level since 1995.

 

The U.S. currency declined 2.9 percent against the euro on Dec. 17, the biggest drop since the 15-nation currency's 1999 debut. The Fed lowered its target lending rate a day earlier to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. It reiterated plans to purchase agency debt and mortgage-backed securities and said it will study buying Treasuries.

 

Relative Strength

 

The nine-day relative strength index of the dollar versus the euro, which measures the momentum of gains and losses over time, was at 21.44 yesterday. Readings below 30 and above 70 signal a change in direction maybe imminent.

 

"This is not a fundamentally driven move in the euro," said Lutz Karpowitz

, a Frankfurt-based currency strategist at Commerzbank AG. "We have very low liquidity right now, and volatility is very high."

 

Implied volatility on one-month euro-dollar options averaged 23.2375 this week, about double the year-to-date average.

 

Ukraine's currency jumped 10 percent to 8.2750 against the dollar as the central bank increased its refinancing rate for the second time in two days. The bank raised the rate to 22 percent from 18 percent after boosting it by one percentage point yesterday, when the currency weakened to a record of 9.78.

 

Real's Rally

 

Brazil's real gained the most against the dollar among the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg today, climbing 3.1 percent to 2.3556, on speculation the yield advantage of local fixed-income assets will continue to attract foreign investors. The central bank held the benchmark Selic lending rate at 13.75 percent on Dec. 10.

 

The euro slid against the dollar today, paring its weekly gain to 4.1 percent, after the European Commission said in a report there may be a "sharp" decline in regional economic growth next year.

 

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet  signaled on Dec. 15 it may pause in reducing borrowing costs at its meeting in January.

 

"The global nature of the current crisis, and increasingly linked global macro cycles, suggest the ECB needs to follow the Fed on the move lower," wrote

 

Brian Kim, currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in a research note today. The euro will fall to $1.25 in three months, he said.

 

Yen's Gain

 

The yen gained 26 percent against the dollar this year, the most since 1987, as more than $1 trillion of credit-market losses and a global economic slowdown encouraged Japanese investors to unwind overseas investments and bring money home. Japan's currency appreciated 1.9 percent this week in its seventh straight advance, the longest rally in four years.

 

Honda Motor Co. may shift research and development out of Japan and increase overseas manufacturing if the yen strengthens further, President Takeo Fukui said in an interview with journalists today.

 

Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa  said this week at a news conference that he has "the means" to limit the yen's rally. Central banks buy or sell currencies when they seek to influence exchange rates.

 

The yen will further strengthen against the dollar into the first quarter of 2009, according to  Dustin Reid,  director of currency strategy at RBS Global Banking & Markets in Chicago.

 

"The yen will be seen as the ultimate safe-haven currency," Reid said. "The market eventually will push the dollar-yen low enough to test the Japanese government, Bank of Japan or Ministry of Finance, to test their mettle."

 

Japan's Interventions

 

The last time Japan intervened on its own, it sold a record 20.4 trillion yen in 2003 and 14.8 trillion yen in the first quarter of 2004, when the yen strengthened to 103.42 per dollar. Japan hasn't bought yen since 1998, when it spent 3.05 trillion yen as the currency reached a low of 147.66.

 

The BOJ said today it will raise monthly government bond purchases to 1.4 trillion yen ($15.7 billion) from 1.2 trillion yen to increase liquidity in the financial system. The reduction in the overnight lending rate was predicted by futures traders after the Fed slashed its target rate this week.

Friday, December 19, 2008

First half of December.

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to a five-week high against the euro while the dollar rose against an index of the currencies of six U.S. trading partners as the deepening global recession increased the haven appeal of the currencies.

 

The ICE's Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, the yen, the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and Sweden's krona, climbed 0.7 percent to 87.121. It touched 88.463 on Nov. 21, the highest since April 2006.

 

'Tug of War'

 

"You have a tug of war between gloomy U.S. economic fundamentals and the flight to safety to the dollar," said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. "The dollar still enjoys some support against most other currencies."

 

Germany manufacturing orders slumped in October more than forecast, dropping 6.1 percent after being adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, the Economy Ministry reported yesterday in Berlin. It's the 10th decline in orders in the past 11 months.

 

Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed 76 percent odds the Fed will lower its 1 percent target lending rate to 0.25 percent by its next meeting on Dec. 16, compared with a 32 percent chance a week earlier.

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke  said in a Dec. 1 speech in Austin, Texas, that the central bank may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy

because there's "obviously limited" room to lower borrowing costs.

 

The European Central Bank delivered the biggest interest- rate cut on Dec. 4 in its 10-year history as the economic slump deepened and the inflation rate plunged. ECB policy makers lowered the main refinancing rate by 0.75 percentage point to 2.5 percent.

 

Details here.

 

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a fifth day  on signs that U.S. fuel demand has continued to decline from last year amid the longest economic contraction

since World War II.

 

Crude oil for January delivery dropped as much as 25 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $46.54 a barrel. It was at $46.63 at 9:20 a.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have tumbled 68 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11. Yesterday, crude fell 17 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $46.79 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Feb. 9, 2005.

 

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in New York as the dollar strengthened and deflation concerns mounted, reducing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.

 

The dollar rose against the euro as economists forecast a rate cut tomorrow by the European Central Bank. Gold often moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

 

Some investors buy the metal to preserve value when consumer prices rise. Excluding food and fuel costs, the U.S. consumer price index fell in October for the first time since 1982, government figures show.

 

"After having a run to the $830 level a few weeks ago, gold has been under pressure on account of the dollar," Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said today in an e-mailed note. "More importantly, with deflation -- as opposed to inflation – now being the key macro development to watch, gold's attraction has been waning."

 

Gold futures for February delivery fell $12.80, or 1.6 percent, to $770.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal tumbled 5.2 percent on Dec. 1, the most since March, and is down 8.1 percent this year.

 

"Gold is at a basic standstill waiting for some real news," Miguel Perez-Santalla, a sales vice president at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York, said today in an e- mailed note. "It is all about investors at this stage, as the jewelry industry will not be in the picture again until after the New Year."

 

Silver futures for March delivery slipped 2.5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $9.59 an ounce on Comex. The metal has dropped 36 percent this year.

 

Gold is headed for an annual decline for the first time in eight years, while the U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge that includes six major currencies, is poised for its first advance in three years. The index, which gained 0.4 percent today, rose 9.6 percent in the third quarter, while gold fell 5.1 percent.

 

Consumer Prices Fall

 

The CPI declined 1 percent in October, the most since records began in 1947, according to the U.S. Labor Department. Federal Reserve policy makers predicted the U.S. economy will contract until the middle of next year, with some officials concerned about the risks of deflation, according to minutes of their Oct. 28-29 meeting.

 

Confronting what may be the worst recession since World War II, the Fed will cut its target bank-lending rate at a Dec. 16 meeting by a quarter of a percentage point, to 0.75 percent, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 4.25 percentage points since September 2007, to 1 percent.

 

Rate Cuts Expected

 

Other central banks are lowering borrowing costs. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank cut its benchmark rate by a record 1.5 percentage points to 5 percent. In the U.K., the Bank of England is expected to slash its key lending rate by a third to 2 percent tomorrow, while the rate for the euro region may be trimmed a half-percentage point to 2.75 percent.

 

"It looks like the ECB will be cutting rates more than originally expected, and if they do, the dollar will strengthen and we may see weaker metals prices,"

 

Perez-Santalla  said in a report earlier today.

 

A global recession may curb demand for all raw materials, and prompt some investors to sell precious metals to raise cash and cover losses in other markets, some analysts said.

 

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index  of 19 raw materials fell as much as 1.2 percent today to a six-year low. The index has dropped 37 percent this year.

 

 

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell against the dollar  and the yen on speculation the European Central Bank will deliver the biggest interest rates cut in its 10-year history today and signal further reductions to buoy the recession-mired economy.

 

The euro declined most versus the Brazilian real before the rate decision. The British pound dropped to an all-time low against the euro and the weakest since 2002 versus the euro. The yen gained versus all the major currencies as central banks in the U.K., Sweden, New Zealand and Indonesia cut rates to stem a global economic slowdown, making the Japanese currency more attractive as a haven.

 

"The bigger picture here is that we need sharply lower rates in the future and that will mean even more cuts down the line," said Paul Robson, a London-based currency strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. "We'll see the euro-yen and the euro-dollar lower from here."

 

The euro fell to $1.2637 at 7:14 a.m. in New York from $1.2717 yesterday. It reached $1.2563 on Dec. 2, the lowest level since Nov. 21. The 15-nation currency weakened to 117.37 yen from 118.64 yen. The dollar slid to 92.79 yen from 93.30. The pound slid to 86.49 pence per euro, after trading at a record low of 86.96 pence. It was at $1.4633, and traded as low as $1.4471, the weakest level since May 2002.

 

"If the ECB cuts less than 100 basis points, it would be a substantial disappointment for the market," said Michael Klawitter , a currency strategist with Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. "Monetary policy spreads are disappearing and moving in favor of the dollar. Selling the euro against the dollar and the yen are still an appropriate strategy."

 

'Euro-Zone Recession'

 

The ECB will lower its benchmark rate to 2.75 percent from 3.25 percent today, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. European retail sales declined a larger-than- expected 2.1 percent in October, data showed yesterday, as widening financial turmoil took its toll on consumer confidence.

 

The euro-region's gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, matching an initial estimate, the European Union's Luxembourg-based statistics office said today.

 

"Recent data suggests the euro-zone recession may last longer than first anticipated and that adds to the case for the ECB to cut interest rates aggressively," said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. "For euro-dollar, this suggests a visit to the recent lows of between $1.23 and $1.24 is likely."

 

The Bank of England cut its main interest rate  to 2 percent from 3 percent today, the lowest level since 1951, to stave off the ravages of the credit crisis. U.K. house prices fell the most since 1992 in November as banks curtailed credit, HBOS Plc said today.

 

Services, Confidence

 

An index based on a survey of about 700 U.K. service companies dropped to 40.1 for November, the lowest since the gauge began in 1996, Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said yesterday. Consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since at least 2004, Nationwide Building Society said.

 

 

The yen rose against the euro on speculation the deepening global slowdown spurred investors to sell higher-yielding assets financed by borrowing in Japan.

Investors have been reducing carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates.

 

 

Japan's benchmark rate of 0.3 percent compares with 4.25 percent in Australia, 5 percent in New Zealand and 3.25 percent in the euro region.

 

"Investors will likely shun risk amid growing worries over a worldwide recession," said Yuji Saito, Tokyo-based head of the foreign-exchange group at Societe General SA. "The yen may be bought."

 

New Zealand, Sweden

 

Japanese businesses cut investment at the fastest pace in six years last quarter, a government report showed today. Capital spending  excluding software fell 13.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, a sixth quarterly decline, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 10.9 percent decline.

 

New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark rate  by a record 1.5 percentage points to 5 percent and signaled more to come as it attempts to steer the economy out of recession.

 

New Zealand's dollar fell 0.1 percent to 53.18 U.S. cents and 0.5 percent to 49.40 yen from late in New York, following the central bank's rate reduction today.

 

Sweden's krona fell close to a record low against the euro as the Riksbank cut the benchmark interest rate by the most in 16 years to revive the ailing economy.

 

Policy makers, who raised interest rates as recently as September, reduced the repo rate today by 1.75 percentage points to 2 percent, compared with the 1 percentage-point reduction forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

 

"We clearly see the Riksbank providing a guideline to what will come from the other banks today," Klawitter said.

 

The yuan traded at 6.8837 per dollar, near a five-month low, on speculation U.S. Treasury Secretary  Henry Paulson 's calls for a stronger yuan during a Beijing visit this week won't stop China from weakening its currency to support exporters.

The yen fell against the euro - BOJ cut interest rate.

By Stanley White

 

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the euro for a fifth day after the Bank of Japan lowered borrowing costs to 0.1 percent from 0.3 percent and said it will buy commercial paper to help unlock credit markets.

 

The yen weakened versus the South Korean won and British pound and was little changed against the dollar on speculation Japanese officials will intervene to stem its surge to a 13-year high. The dollar declined against the euro, headed for its biggest weekly loss since the 15-nation currency's 1999 debut, after the Federal Reserve introduced near-zero interest rates and said it would focus on buying debt, a policy known as quantitative easing.

 

"The BOJ has done what's necessary given the state of the global economy," said  Masahiro Sato, joint general manager of the treasury division in Tokyo at Mizuho Trust & Banking Co., a unit of Japan's second-largest publicly listed lender. "The yen is weakening against the euro as monetary policy in Europe isn't as loose as in Japan."

 

The yen declined to 127.62 per euro as of 2:30 p.m. in Tokyo from 127.44 late yesterday in New York, when it reached a six- week low of 130.92. It traded at 89.42 versus the dollar after surging to 87.14 on Dec. 17, the highest level since September 1995. The dollar dropped to $1.4278 versus the euro from $1.4240. The yen may weaken to 130 per euro today, he said.

 

The yen has appreciated 25 percent against the dollar this year, the most since 1987, as more than $1 trillion of credit- market losses sparked a seizure in money markets and threw the global economy into a recession.

 

The BOJ also said it will raise monthly Japanese government bond purchases to 1.4 trillion yen ($15.6 billion) from 1.2 trillion yen.

Crude oil fell below $36 a barrel

By Mark Shenk

 

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $36 a barrel for the first time since June 2004 as declining demand created a glut of crude and the weakening economy undermined OPEC's efforts to reduce supply.

 

Oil for delivery in future months has dropped less than the contract for January as supply has swollen in the storage hub for crude traded in New York. The U.S. Energy Department said consumption will be lower in 2009 because of the recession. OPEC agreed to reduce output by 2.46 million barrels a day yesterday.

 

"There's a lot of supply and not a lot of storage left," said Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief energy economist, in Washington. "There's a hope somewhere that the economy will be better in 12 months and the OPEC cuts will start to have their intended impact."

 

Crude oil for January delivery dropped $3.84, or 9.6 percent, to $36.22 a barrel at 2:47 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since June 29, 2004. Futures touched $35.98 during today's session. Prices have tumbled 75 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11. The January contract expires tomorrow.

 

February futures cost $5.45 a barrel more than January oil today, based on Nymex settlement prices. It's the biggest premium between the two most-active contract months in Bloomberg data going back to 1986. The spread allows oil traders who can line up credit and storage space to lock in profits by buying and holding crude oil to sell a month from now.

 

Oil Contango

 

Oil for delivery in January 2010 is 53 percent more than for delivery in January 2009, increasing the opportunity for traders to profit. This price structure, in which the subsequent month's price is higher than the one before it, is known as contango.

 

Contango trading encourages companies to increase stockpiles. U.S. crude-oil supplies rose in 11 of the past 12 weeks, according to the DOE.  Inventories  at Cushing, Oklahoma, where oil that's traded on Nymex is stored, climbed 21 percent to 27.5 million barrels last week, the highest since May 2007, the government said yesterday.

 

"Unless demand picks up appreciably, the front-month contracts will remain under pressure because nobody wants to take delivery," said Phil Flynn, senior trader at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "We could see a lot of fireworks tomorrow."

 

Volume in electronic trading on the exchange was 412,007 contracts, as of 3:20 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 664,140 contracts yesterday, up 32 percent from the average over the past 3 months. Open interest yesterday was 1.17 million contracts. The exchange has a one-day delay in reporting open interest and full volume data.

 

Demand Decline

 

"The continuing decline in demand is running ahead of supply cuts," said Robert Ebel, chairman of the energy and national security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Right now OPEC has its fingers crossed. If this doesn't work, they will have another meeting soon and make another cut."

 

World oil consumption next year will drop by 0.2 percent to 85.68 million barrels a day, OPEC said in a Dec. 15 report. The U.S. Energy Department said on Dec. 9 that global demand will decline 0.5 percent to 85.3 million barrels a day.

 

JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. bank by assets, reduced its 2009 average oil price forecast to $43 a barrel from $69 as a global economic slowdown causes a contraction in demand. The prospect of oil falling to $25 is "hard to dismiss amid a serious deterioration of economic conditions and building stocks," the bank said in a report released yesterday.

 

Supply 'Leakage'

 

"When you look at the spare capacity that is being created, even if prices do start to pick up, you will see more leakage of supply onto the market," Lawrence Eagles, global head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase in New York, said in a conference call today.

 

Yesterday's record Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' production cut is larger than a 2 million-barrel drop indicated on Dec. 16 by Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi. OPEC ministers met in Oran, Algeria.

 

OPEC has called on other exporters to help it bolster prices. Non-OPEC members Russia and Azerbaijan signaled yesterday that they may be willing to trim supplies to help the group.

 

Norway, the fifth-biggest oil exporter, according to the country's  Ministry of Petroleum and Energy , won't follow OPEC's decision to cut output, Stein Hernes, a spokesman for the ministry, said in an e-mailed response to questions today.

 

No Confidence

 

"Even though OPEC announced a substantial cut yesterday, the market doesn't seem to have any confidence in their ability to manipulate the market," said

 

Tom Bentz , senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. "Even if they make the promised cuts, it will be a long time before we see evidence of it here." Oil companies have booked 25 supertankers to store crude, enough to supply France for almost a month. The vessels, equal to about 5 percent of the global fleet, can carry as much as 50 million barrels.

 

"The market is failing to find any support," Bentz said. "The worries about demand are still out there because of the recession. We've got at least 45 million barrels of excess floating storage out there on top of all the storage we've got on land."  Brent crude oil for February settlement declined $2.17, or 4.8 percent, to settle at $43.36 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Gold fell in New York for the first time this week

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

 

Dec. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in New York for the first time this week as the dollar rebounded, eroding the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.

 

The dollar rose as much as 1.5 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies, after dropping 5.7 percent in the previous three days as gold climbed 5.9 percent. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by bullion, reached a record 775.3 metric tons yesterday. The metal is headed for an eighth-straight yearly gain.

 

"The dollar is the major issue pushing gold down today," said Tom Hartmann, a commodity analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. "The dollar's uptrend is still intact."

 

Gold futures for February delivery fell $7.90, or 0.9 percent, to $860.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's Comex division.

 

Silver futures for March delivery fell 30 cents, or 2.6 percent, to $11.12 an ounce on the Comex. The most-active Silver contract has dropped 25 percent this year, while gold is up 2.7 percent.

 

Gold yesterday reached $883.60, the highest since Oct. 10. The seven-day relative strength index for gold futures has been above 70 all week, an indication to technical traders that the price is headed lower in the near term.

 

"Gold has had a nice run here, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some selling," said  Marty McNeill , a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. "We're running into some resistance between $870 and $880." Covering Losses

 

As asset prices fall, investors may also sell the metal to cover losses in other markets. The  Standard & Poor's 500 Index of equities and the  Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index  of 19 commodities both are down 38 percent this year. Gold is the fourth-best performer on the CRB Index and may be used to raise cash, analysts said.

 

 

"We have to get through a bout of deflation in commodity prices," said Hartmann of Altavest. "Gold doesn't do well in a deflationary environment."

 

Still, gold's losses may be limited as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut this week weakens the dollar and erodes the currency's allure as a haven for investors. As the credit crisis unfolded, the dollar surged between July and November, pushing yields on three-month Treasury notes below zero for the first time this month.

 

Policy makers reduced the benchmark lending rate from 1 percent to a range between zero and 0.25 percent on Dec. 16, the lowest ever. The Fed began cutting borrowing costs from 5.25 percent in September 2007 as the economy headed into a recession.   Smelling Fear

 

"The Fed's actions show just how dire the credit crisis is and how desperate they are," said Ralph Preston, a commodity analyst at Heritage West Futures Inc. in San Diego. "The metals smell the fear. Market psychology is beginning to view gold as a safe haven."

 

 Gold may average $820 next year, with gains coming in the first half, analysts at Barclays Capital said yesterday in a quarterly report.

 

"In the near term, prices are likely to remain torn between two camps," Barclays said. "A pick-up in physical demand and additional safe-haven buying will support prices, but the need to liquidate positions to meet margin calls elsewhere will cap gold's upside potential."

Thursday, December 18, 2008

OKU penglihatan, jangan berputus asa.

Cabaran kepada OKU penglihatan dalam memperolehi kerjaya terus diperkatakan terutamanya mereka yang memperjuangkan nasib golongan itu. Sehingga kini tiada suatu langkah konkrit bagi mengatasi masalah yang dihadapi oleh OKU penglihatan. Cuma yang ada hanyalah inisiatif individu OKU penglihatan itu sendiri dalam mengharungi kemelut kehidupan ini.

 

Di sinilah ingin saya kongsikan bersama terutamanya kepada OKU penglihatan dan sesiapa sahaja yang berminat dalam aktiviti dagangan tukaran asing atau fx trading. Semoga apa yang saya kongsikan ini dapat diambil manfaatnya.

 

Aktiviti tukaran asing atau fx trading boleh saja dilakukan oleh sesiapa termasuklah seorang OKU penglihatan. Apa yang penting haruslah bersungguh dan mempunyai tekad yang kuat.

 

Selain komputer dan sambungan internet, sudah pastilah sambungan jalur lebar yang paling sesuai, keupayaan mengenalpasti pergerakan sesuatu pasangan dalam dagangan fx trading merupakan asas utama kepada aktiviti yang menguntungkan.

 

Disiplin yang tinggi, disertai keupayaan mengawal keinginan akan menguatkan lagi asas kepada keuntungan yang akan diraih. Dalam memahami forex trading, kebanyakan laman-laman web atau apa jua sumber menyebut bahawa  menguasai pelbagai carta dan graf adalah antara kemahiran diperlukan dalam membuat penganalisaan. Justeru nampak ada sedikit kesukaran bagi OKU penglihatan bagi mengikuti pelbagai jenis carta dan graf disebabkan ia bersifat grafik bukannya sekadar text yang boleh dibaca oleh screen reader.

 

Dalam hal inilah keupayaan tambahan diperlukan. Carta dan graf yang dijadikan alat bantu dalam membuat penganalisaan hanyalah suatu kaedah pemudah cara. Bagi mereka yang dapat melihat, paparan dalam bentuk carta dan graf akan menjadikan penganalisaan begitu mudah dengan seimbas pandang.

 

Namun demikian, haruslah difahami apa jua carta dan graf yang dibentuk, ia hanyalah hasil kombinasi nhombor dan angka yang sentiasa bergerak. Dengan perkataan lain, mengesan pergerakan sesuatu angka dalam fx trading itulah sebenarnya yang lebih utama. Dalam hal inilah screen reader dengan pengubahsauaian yang secukupnya akan mampu membantu OKU penglihatan dalam membuat analisa.

 

Selain itu, kemahiran dalam penggunaan pelbagai software seperti microsoft excel dan pelbagai software analisa akan menambahkan lagi peluang untuk meraih keuntungan. Kebanyakan software analisa dalam pasaran pada hari ini adalah mesra pengguna kepada OKU penglihatan. Meskipun pelbagai software analisa bersifat grafik, banyak juga software analisa yang mampu diterokai dengan menggunakan screen reader.

 

Demikianlah serba ringkasbagaimana fx trading boleh dimanfaatkan oleh OKU penglihatan. Apa yang saya bentangkan ini hanyalah sebahagian kecil maklumat untuk bekalan kepada mereka yang berminat. Semoga paparan ini memberi ruang untuk kita meneroka peluang yang ada untuk faedah bersama. – Mohammad Faizal Che Yusof.