Aktiviti perniagaan FX tidak bercanggah dengan hukum Islam.

FIRMAN ALLAH s.w.t. YANG BERMAKSUD:

 

Orang-orang yang memakan (mengambil) riba itu tidak dapat berdiri betul melainkan seperti berdirinya orang yang dirasuk Syaitan dengan terhuyung-hayang kerana sentuhan (Syaitan) itu. Yang demikian ialah disebabkan mereka mengatakan: Bahawa sesungguhnya berniaga itu sama sahaja seperti riba. Padahal Allah telah menghalalkan berjual beli (berniaga) dan mengharamkan riba. Oleh itu sesiapa yang telah sampai kepadanya peringatan (larangan) dari Tuhannya lalu dia berhenti (dari mengambil riba), maka apa yang telah diambilnya dahulu (sebelum pengharaman itu) adalah menjadi haknya dan perkaranya terserahlah kepada Allah dan sesiapa yang mengulangi lagi (perbuatan mengambil riba itu) maka mereka itulah ahli Neraka, mereka kekal di dalamnya. (Al-Baqarah, 275)

 

Selari dengan firman Allah S.W.T yang tersebut di atas, Dewan Syariah National (DSN)-Majelis Ulama Indonesia (MUI) melalui fatwa No. 28/DSN-MUI/III/2002 telah menegaskan bahawa perniagaan matawang asing atau Assarf dalam bahasa arab tidak bercanggah dengan hokum syara'.

 

Apa yang menjadi intipati kepada fatwa tersebut ialah perniagaan matawang asing adalah berteraskan kepada aktiviti jual beli. – 27 Jamadil Awal 1430H.

Mengenali zon-zon masa dalam pasaran.

KETIDAKTENTUAN dalam pasaran kebelakangan ini amat meletihkan kepada sesiapa sahaja yang ingin mencari laba darinya. Lebih-lebih lagi bagi saya yang cacat penglihatan, keupayaan terbatas benar-benar menguji ketahanan minda dalam menganalisa pergerakan pasaran. Dengan kelengkapan petunjuk yang begitu terhad disebabkan kebanyakannya bersifat visual, pengamatan yang amat tajam amat diperlukan. Apa pun ia menjadikan usaha menganalisa itu makin menarik.

 

Apa yang ingin saya kongsikan kali ini ialah masa-masa yang perlu diperhatikan bagi memastikan penyertaan para pelabur dalam pasaran dapat memberi kepastian untuk untung diraih. Jika waktu-waktu yang terbabait menyebabkan kita ragu-ragu akan potensi keuntungan, adalah lebih baik kita menjauhi pasaran.

 

Zon masa amat mustahak bagi kita menentukan trend agar kita tidak terperangkap dengan pergerakan semasa.apatah lagi bagi pasaran forex. Sebagaimana yang sering saya sebutkan, forex diumpamakan gergaji bermata dua. Trend menaik member peluang kita meraih untung secara membeli sebaliknya trend menurun member peluang untuk kita meraih untung dengan cara menjual.

 

Bagi mereka yang berdagang secara (intraday) ataupun secara harian dan jangka pendek, mengenalpasti zon masa amat membantu kita mengenali trend yang boleh berubah begitu pantas. Dalam tempoh 24 jam, trend boleh berlaku lebih dari satu bentuk. Sesuatu trend itu mungkin saja bertahan untuk tempoh beberapa jam sebelum mengubah arah bagi membentuk trend yang baru.

 

Zon-zon masa yang saya maksudkan amat berkait rapat dengan pusingan matahari mengelilingi dunia. Sebagaimana matahari yang terbit dari timur, demikianlah  zon masa itu akan bermula dari sebelah timur.

 

Berdasarkan garisan menegak, Australia merupakan benua paling timur. Sydney yang mempunyai longitude151◦ merupakan pasaran utama harian dunia dibuka. Sydney merupakan zon masa pertama di mana waktunya 3 jam lebih awal dari waktu Malaysia. Zon masa seterusnya ialah pasaran Jepun. Tokyo yang mempunyai longitude139◦ akan meneruskan perjalanan pasaran yang merupakan 1 jam lebih awal dari waktu kita. Zon ketiga yang harus diberi perhatian ialah zon masa Eropah. Ia diwakili oleh bandar London yang mempunyai longitude0◦. Zon ini ketinggalan 8 jam di belakang waktu Malaysia. Zon masa terakhir dalam pusingan pasaran sedunia diwakili oleh pasaran di New York yang mempunyai Longitude73◦ ke barat. Kedudukan New York di sebelah barat menjadikan masanya lewat 13 jam berbanding waktu negara kita.

 

Secara lebih terperinci, waktu-waktu operasi pasaran sedunia boleh diikuti dari laman Stock, Futures and FOREX End of Day Data in MetaStock Data and ASCII Data formats. Selain pasaran utama saham, ia turut memaparkan waktu operasi pasaran-pasaran komoditi atau pasaran berjangka sedunia. Haruslah diingat bahawa forex yang ditentukan oleh penawaran dan permintaan amat dipengaruhi oleh pelbagai pasaran sama ada bond, komoditi, ataupun pasaran berjangka. Justeru mengenali zon-zon masa ini akan dapat membantu kita dalam membuat analisa pasaran.

 

Saya sering ditanya adakah waktu malam itu merupakan waktu terbaik untuk membuat pelaburan? Persoalan ini dibangkitkan bilamana kebanyakan dari kita beranggapan pasaran Amerikalah merupakan penentu kepada pergerakan pasaran sedunia. Meskipun secara fizikal pasaran Amerika merupakan pasaran yang menawarkan volume tertinggi, namun ia hanyalah merupakan sebahagian faktor kepada pergerakan pasaran sedunia.

 

Jika ditanya bilakah masa yang paling sesuai untuk membuat pelaburan, jawapannya mudah. Ia bergantung kepada keselesaan diri kita sendiri. Maka pengamatan terhadap pasaran itu amat perlu untuk kita menentukan keselesaan kita menyertai pasaran. – 14 Safar 1430H.

Analisa untuk persiapkan negara.

Meskipun harga minyak mentah jenis Light Sweet menunjukkan sedikit kenaikan, namun trend menurun bagi penghantaran bulan Mac 2009 masih berterusan. Sentimen yang pelbagai sebagaimana dilaporkan di sini tidak berupaya membawa trend menurun ini bertukar arah.

 

Sebagaimana yang sering saya paparkan dalam posting sebelum ini, saya masih mencari-cari langkah yang lebih menepati kewujudan instrumen dalam pasaran hari ini yang benar-benar berupaya menjadikan negara mampu berhadapan dengan pasaran terbuka tersebut.

 

Jika diperhatikan, bagi penghantaran bulan Mac, kenaikan dari harga terendah diniagakan iaitu pada USD 39.85 setong kepada 41.00 (saat penulisan ini dibuat) seolah-olah menampakkan kenaikan. Namun saya meletakkan kenaikan itu bersifat sementara dan hanya riaksi pasaran yang sementara selepas mencecah harga terendah semenjak September 2004 iaitu pada harga USD 35.59. harga yang dicecah pada Disember 2008 itu seharusnya menjadi perhatian kita semua betapa kemungkinan ia akan mencecah USD 30 setong dalam beberapa bulan akan datang.

 

Dalam keadaan semasa, saya meletakkan harga USD 43.74 sebagai penanda aras untuk kemungkinan trend menurun ini bertukar. Pun begitu, perhatian saya lebih tertumpu kepada penurunan yang berterusan dan mencecah harga sokongan USD 37.00 setong dalam masa terdekat.

 

Justeru, sebagai pengeksport minyak dan diimbangkan dengan kepentingan pengguna, wajiplah persediaan semantapnya dipersiap. – 8 Safar 1430H.

 

Forex - fundamental atau teknikal?

 

ANTARA petunjuk asas dan petunjuk teknikal, yang manakah lebih berkesan? Itulah antara persoalan yang sering dikemukakan dalam perniagaan berbentuk pasaran terbuka seperti saham, bond, forex dan seumpamanya. Bagi saya sebagai maklumat pengunjung, kedua-duanya penting. Namun saya lebih cenderung untuk mengatakan petunjuk teknikal lebih banyak membantu.

 

Adakalanya dalam keadaan tertentu petunjuk asas (fundamental technical) terlepas menilai sesuatu isu. Namun dalam menuruti petunjuk teknikal, kita tak perlu bimbangkan sebarang isu yang berlaku disebabkan terlalu banyak isu dan sentimen yang boleh mempegaruhi pasaran.

 

Melalui petunjuk teknikal, semua isu dan sentimen telah digabungkan ke dalam pergerakan nombor-nombor dan itulah yang berlaku dalam pasaran. Justeru kita tak perlu risau atau bimbang sebarang isu dan sentimen yang akan mempengaruhi pasaran. Kita hanya perlu memerhati pergerakan pasaran dan bantuan isyarat teknikal untuk membuat keputusan berkaitan sebarang transaksi.

 

Sebagai bukti, laporan yang bertajuk Euro Falls to 3-Week Low on Speculation Report to Show Slowing Inflation ini hanya terbit beberapa jam setelah beberapa pasaran asia dibuka dan beroperasi. Sedangkan melalui petunjuk-petunjuk teknikal, penurunan nilai Euro berbanding kebanyakan matawang telah dapat digambarkan sebaik pasaran New York ditutup pada sekitar jam 5:am waktu malaysia 6 Januari tadi.

 

Jadi teruslah mengikuti posting berikutnya untuk saya berkongsi sedikit pengalaman bagi manfaat bersama. – 10 Muharam 1430H.

 

Belajar Forex: trend sebagai penentu keuntungan.

 

DALAM forex, trend itu amat penting untuk urusniaga yang menguntungkan. Tiga trend utama yang harus dikenalpasti termasuklah:

 

1. Trend menaik.

 

2. Trend menurun.

 

3. Trend statik.

 

Semasa pasaran berada dalam trend menaik, para peniaga akan mencari masa terbaik untuk membuat belian dan menjual pada harga yang menguntungkan.

 

Dalam trend menurun, para peniaga akan mencari harga sesuai untuk menjual dan menutup urusniaga ketika yang sesuai dan keuntungan diperolehi.

 

Dalam hal inilah ada yang mengatakan urusniaga bersifat gergaji dua mata. Ditolak ia memakan kayu dan ditarik kayu tetap terpotong. Apa tidaknya, forex memberi ruang kepada peniaga untuk jual dan beli sama ada pasaran naik atau turun.

 

Dalam kebanyakan pasaran, jika harganya menurun, rata-rata peniaga akan mengalami kerugian. Hal ini tidak akan berlaku dalam forex. Pasaran yang menurun akan memberi peluang kepada peniaga untuk membuat transaksi jualan dan mengaut untung bila harga mencecah ke tahap terendah.

 

Selain trend menaik dan menurun, terdapat juga trend yang ketiga iaitu trend statik. Dalam trend ini pasaran akan berada pada harga yang tidak sesuai untuk berurusniaga.

 

Justeru, sebelum seseorang peniaga itu memasuki pasaran, beliau wajip mengenalpasti trend yang didepaninya.

 

Suatu hal yang perlu juga diketahui ialah jenis tempoh masa dan waktu urusniaga dalam forex. Terdapat pelbagai tempoh masa dan katagori waktu. Jenis tempoh masa dalam forex termasuklah tempoh mengikut minit, 5 minit, 15 minit, 30 minit, sejam, 4 jam, sehari, seminggu dan bulanan. Berdasarkan tempoh-tempoh masa ini trend akan dapat dikenalpasti dan carta akan dibentuk.

 

Sebagai contoh, bagi menentukan perjalanan pasaran secara harian, pergerakan setiap jam atau 4 jam akan diperhati.

 

Bagi pelabur yang bukan berurusniaga berasaskan harga penutup harian "end of day trading", pergerakan harga jangka pendek akan diperhatikan. Pelabur yang juga dikenali sebagai peniaga "intra day", pergerakan harga jangka pendek seperti 5 minit dan sejam akan membantunya mengenalpasti trend.

 

Kebanyakan broker forex menyediakan platform berasaskan pusingan waktu sedunia. Sebagai contoh, nilaian akan bermula pada jam 6:am waktu Malaysia. Pada ketika ini pasaran Australia akan mula dibuka. Putaran jam urusniaga akan terus berputar hinggalah waktu penutup pasaran New York iaitu sekitar jam 5:am waktu Malaysia.

 

Jika ditanya bilakah waktu yang paling menguntungkan, jawapan saya ianya bergantung pada bila kita benar-benar bersedia memasuki urusniaga.

 

Pada masa akan datang, saya akan berkongsi bagaimana trend dikenalpasti khususnya bagi mereka yang cacat penglihatan kerana kita akan menghadapi masalah mengikuti skrin pasaran yang bersifat grafik. – 1 Muharam 1430H.

Fundamental, technical analysis 3*: The dollar strengthened most.

By Jamie McGee and Michael J. Moore

 

Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar strengthened the most against the euro in almost two months as traders said the decline was too fast to be sustained after the Federal Reserve lowered the target lending rate to near zero this week.

 

The euro also weakened after the European Commission said the region may suffer a "substantial" effect from the financial crisis next year. The yen traded near a 13-year high against the dollar even after the Bank of Japan lowered its benchmark interest rate to 0.1 percent.

 

"This was the most concentrated, rapid rally in the euro since its creation," said Robert Sinche, head of global currency strategy at Bank of America Corp. in New York. "The market got a little ahead of itself in the short run. We are getting a healthy correction now."

 

The dollar climbed 2.5 percent to $1.3898 versus the euro at 3:53 p.m. in New York, from $1.4240 yesterday, when it slumped to a 12-week low of $1.4719. It gained as much as 3 percent, the biggest intraday increase since Oct. 24. The euro fell 2.8 percent to 123.88 yen from 127.44. The dollar traded at 89.12 yen, compared with 89.43. It dropped to 87.14 yen two days ago, the lowest level since 1995.

 

The U.S. currency declined 2.9 percent against the euro on Dec. 17, the biggest drop since the 15-nation currency's 1999 debut. The Fed lowered its target lending rate a day earlier to a range of zero to 0.25 percent. It reiterated plans to purchase agency debt and mortgage-backed securities and said it will study buying Treasuries.

 

Relative Strength

 

The nine-day relative strength index of the dollar versus the euro, which measures the momentum of gains and losses over time, was at 21.44 yesterday. Readings below 30 and above 70 signal a change in direction maybe imminent.

 

"This is not a fundamentally driven move in the euro," said Lutz Karpowitz

, a Frankfurt-based currency strategist at Commerzbank AG. "We have very low liquidity right now, and volatility is very high."

 

Implied volatility on one-month euro-dollar options averaged 23.2375 this week, about double the year-to-date average.

 

Ukraine's currency jumped 10 percent to 8.2750 against the dollar as the central bank increased its refinancing rate for the second time in two days. The bank raised the rate to 22 percent from 18 percent after boosting it by one percentage point yesterday, when the currency weakened to a record of 9.78.

 

Real's Rally

 

Brazil's real gained the most against the dollar among the 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg today, climbing 3.1 percent to 2.3556, on speculation the yield advantage of local fixed-income assets will continue to attract foreign investors. The central bank held the benchmark Selic lending rate at 13.75 percent on Dec. 10.

 

The euro slid against the dollar today, paring its weekly gain to 4.1 percent, after the European Commission said in a report there may be a "sharp" decline in regional economic growth next year.

 

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet  signaled on Dec. 15 it may pause in reducing borrowing costs at its meeting in January.

 

"The global nature of the current crisis, and increasingly linked global macro cycles, suggest the ECB needs to follow the Fed on the move lower," wrote

 

Brian Kim, currency strategist at UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut, in a research note today. The euro will fall to $1.25 in three months, he said.

 

Yen's Gain

 

The yen gained 26 percent against the dollar this year, the most since 1987, as more than $1 trillion of credit-market losses and a global economic slowdown encouraged Japanese investors to unwind overseas investments and bring money home. Japan's currency appreciated 1.9 percent this week in its seventh straight advance, the longest rally in four years.

 

Honda Motor Co. may shift research and development out of Japan and increase overseas manufacturing if the yen strengthens further, President Takeo Fukui said in an interview with journalists today.

 

Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa  said this week at a news conference that he has "the means" to limit the yen's rally. Central banks buy or sell currencies when they seek to influence exchange rates.

 

The yen will further strengthen against the dollar into the first quarter of 2009, according to  Dustin Reid,  director of currency strategy at RBS Global Banking & Markets in Chicago.

 

"The yen will be seen as the ultimate safe-haven currency," Reid said. "The market eventually will push the dollar-yen low enough to test the Japanese government, Bank of Japan or Ministry of Finance, to test their mettle."

 

Japan's Interventions

 

The last time Japan intervened on its own, it sold a record 20.4 trillion yen in 2003 and 14.8 trillion yen in the first quarter of 2004, when the yen strengthened to 103.42 per dollar. Japan hasn't bought yen since 1998, when it spent 3.05 trillion yen as the currency reached a low of 147.66.

 

The BOJ said today it will raise monthly government bond purchases to 1.4 trillion yen ($15.7 billion) from 1.2 trillion yen to increase liquidity in the financial system. The reduction in the overnight lending rate was predicted by futures traders after the Fed slashed its target rate this week.

First half of December.

Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed to a five-week high against the euro while the dollar rose against an index of the currencies of six U.S. trading partners as the deepening global recession increased the haven appeal of the currencies.

 

The ICE's Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, the yen, the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and Sweden's krona, climbed 0.7 percent to 87.121. It touched 88.463 on Nov. 21, the highest since April 2006.

 

'Tug of War'

 

"You have a tug of war between gloomy U.S. economic fundamentals and the flight to safety to the dollar," said Stephen Malyon, co-head of currency strategy at Scotia Capital Inc. in Toronto. "The dollar still enjoys some support against most other currencies."

 

Germany manufacturing orders slumped in October more than forecast, dropping 6.1 percent after being adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, the Economy Ministry reported yesterday in Berlin. It's the 10th decline in orders in the past 11 months.

 

Futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday showed 76 percent odds the Fed will lower its 1 percent target lending rate to 0.25 percent by its next meeting on Dec. 16, compared with a 32 percent chance a week earlier.

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke  said in a Dec. 1 speech in Austin, Texas, that the central bank may use less conventional policies, such as buying Treasury securities, to revive the economy

because there's "obviously limited" room to lower borrowing costs.

 

The European Central Bank delivered the biggest interest- rate cut on Dec. 4 in its 10-year history as the economic slump deepened and the inflation rate plunged. ECB policy makers lowered the main refinancing rate by 0.75 percentage point to 2.5 percent.

 

Details here.

 

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a fifth day  on signs that U.S. fuel demand has continued to decline from last year amid the longest economic contraction

since World War II.

 

Crude oil for January delivery dropped as much as 25 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $46.54 a barrel. It was at $46.63 at 9:20 a.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have tumbled 68 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11. Yesterday, crude fell 17 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $46.79 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Feb. 9, 2005.

 

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in New York as the dollar strengthened and deflation concerns mounted, reducing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment. Silver also declined.

 

The dollar rose against the euro as economists forecast a rate cut tomorrow by the European Central Bank. Gold often moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

 

Some investors buy the metal to preserve value when consumer prices rise. Excluding food and fuel costs, the U.S. consumer price index fell in October for the first time since 1982, government figures show.

 

"After having a run to the $830 level a few weeks ago, gold has been under pressure on account of the dollar," Edward Meir, an analyst at MF Global Ltd. in Darien, Connecticut, said today in an e-mailed note. "More importantly, with deflation -- as opposed to inflation – now being the key macro development to watch, gold's attraction has been waning."

 

Gold futures for February delivery fell $12.80, or 1.6 percent, to $770.50 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal tumbled 5.2 percent on Dec. 1, the most since March, and is down 8.1 percent this year.

 

"Gold is at a basic standstill waiting for some real news," Miguel Perez-Santalla, a sales vice president at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York, said today in an e- mailed note. "It is all about investors at this stage, as the jewelry industry will not be in the picture again until after the New Year."

 

Silver futures for March delivery slipped 2.5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $9.59 an ounce on Comex. The metal has dropped 36 percent this year.

 

Gold is headed for an annual decline for the first time in eight years, while the U.S. Dollar Index, a gauge that includes six major currencies, is poised for its first advance in three years. The index, which gained 0.4 percent today, rose 9.6 percent in the third quarter, while gold fell 5.1 percent.

 

Consumer Prices Fall

 

The CPI declined 1 percent in October, the most since records began in 1947, according to the U.S. Labor Department. Federal Reserve policy makers predicted the U.S. economy will contract until the middle of next year, with some officials concerned about the risks of deflation, according to minutes of their Oct. 28-29 meeting.

 

Confronting what may be the worst recession since World War II, the Fed will cut its target bank-lending rate at a Dec. 16 meeting by a quarter of a percentage point, to 0.75 percent, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Fed has reduced its benchmark interest rate by 4.25 percentage points since September 2007, to 1 percent.

 

Rate Cuts Expected

 

Other central banks are lowering borrowing costs. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank cut its benchmark rate by a record 1.5 percentage points to 5 percent. In the U.K., the Bank of England is expected to slash its key lending rate by a third to 2 percent tomorrow, while the rate for the euro region may be trimmed a half-percentage point to 2.75 percent.

 

"It looks like the ECB will be cutting rates more than originally expected, and if they do, the dollar will strengthen and we may see weaker metals prices,"

 

Perez-Santalla  said in a report earlier today.

 

A global recession may curb demand for all raw materials, and prompt some investors to sell precious metals to raise cash and cover losses in other markets, some analysts said.

 

The Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index  of 19 raw materials fell as much as 1.2 percent today to a six-year low. The index has dropped 37 percent this year.

 

 

Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell against the dollar  and the yen on speculation the European Central Bank will deliver the biggest interest rates cut in its 10-year history today and signal further reductions to buoy the recession-mired economy.

 

The euro declined most versus the Brazilian real before the rate decision. The British pound dropped to an all-time low against the euro and the weakest since 2002 versus the euro. The yen gained versus all the major currencies as central banks in the U.K., Sweden, New Zealand and Indonesia cut rates to stem a global economic slowdown, making the Japanese currency more attractive as a haven.

 

"The bigger picture here is that we need sharply lower rates in the future and that will mean even more cuts down the line," said Paul Robson, a London-based currency strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. "We'll see the euro-yen and the euro-dollar lower from here."

 

The euro fell to $1.2637 at 7:14 a.m. in New York from $1.2717 yesterday. It reached $1.2563 on Dec. 2, the lowest level since Nov. 21. The 15-nation currency weakened to 117.37 yen from 118.64 yen. The dollar slid to 92.79 yen from 93.30. The pound slid to 86.49 pence per euro, after trading at a record low of 86.96 pence. It was at $1.4633, and traded as low as $1.4471, the weakest level since May 2002.

 

"If the ECB cuts less than 100 basis points, it would be a substantial disappointment for the market," said Michael Klawitter , a currency strategist with Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. "Monetary policy spreads are disappearing and moving in favor of the dollar. Selling the euro against the dollar and the yen are still an appropriate strategy."

 

'Euro-Zone Recession'

 

The ECB will lower its benchmark rate to 2.75 percent from 3.25 percent today, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. European retail sales declined a larger-than- expected 2.1 percent in October, data showed yesterday, as widening financial turmoil took its toll on consumer confidence.

 

The euro-region's gross domestic product shrank 0.2 percent in the third quarter from the previous three months, matching an initial estimate, the European Union's Luxembourg-based statistics office said today.

 

"Recent data suggests the euro-zone recession may last longer than first anticipated and that adds to the case for the ECB to cut interest rates aggressively," said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. "For euro-dollar, this suggests a visit to the recent lows of between $1.23 and $1.24 is likely."

 

The Bank of England cut its main interest rate  to 2 percent from 3 percent today, the lowest level since 1951, to stave off the ravages of the credit crisis. U.K. house prices fell the most since 1992 in November as banks curtailed credit, HBOS Plc said today.

 

Services, Confidence

 

An index based on a survey of about 700 U.K. service companies dropped to 40.1 for November, the lowest since the gauge began in 1996, Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply said yesterday. Consumer confidence fell to the lowest level since at least 2004, Nationwide Building Society said.

 

 

The yen rose against the euro on speculation the deepening global slowdown spurred investors to sell higher-yielding assets financed by borrowing in Japan.

Investors have been reducing carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates.

 

 

Japan's benchmark rate of 0.3 percent compares with 4.25 percent in Australia, 5 percent in New Zealand and 3.25 percent in the euro region.

 

"Investors will likely shun risk amid growing worries over a worldwide recession," said Yuji Saito, Tokyo-based head of the foreign-exchange group at Societe General SA. "The yen may be bought."

 

New Zealand, Sweden

 

Japanese businesses cut investment at the fastest pace in six years last quarter, a government report showed today. Capital spending  excluding software fell 13.3 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, a sixth quarterly decline, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 10.9 percent decline.

 

New Zealand's central bank cut its benchmark rate  by a record 1.5 percentage points to 5 percent and signaled more to come as it attempts to steer the economy out of recession.

 

New Zealand's dollar fell 0.1 percent to 53.18 U.S. cents and 0.5 percent to 49.40 yen from late in New York, following the central bank's rate reduction today.

 

Sweden's krona fell close to a record low against the euro as the Riksbank cut the benchmark interest rate by the most in 16 years to revive the ailing economy.

 

Policy makers, who raised interest rates as recently as September, reduced the repo rate today by 1.75 percentage points to 2 percent, compared with the 1 percentage-point reduction forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

 

"We clearly see the Riksbank providing a guideline to what will come from the other banks today," Klawitter said.

 

The yuan traded at 6.8837 per dollar, near a five-month low, on speculation U.S. Treasury Secretary  Henry Paulson 's calls for a stronger yuan during a Beijing visit this week won't stop China from weakening its currency to support exporters.